Ten years ago, it was too-easy credit that brought financial markets to their knees. Today, it could be a global debt of $247 trillion that causes the next crash.

After a decade of escalating US household debt brought on by low wages and the national debt more than doubling over the same time frame, to $21 trillion, debt could soon put the brakes on this economic recovery, analysts warn.

“We think the major economies are on the cusp of this turning into the worst recession we have seen in 10 years,” said Murray Gunn, head of global research at Elliott Wave International.

And in a note, he added: “Should the [US] economy start to shrink, and our analysis suggests that it will, the high nominal levels of debt will instantly become a very big issue.”

The economic stats:

US household debt of $13.3 trillion now exceeds the 2008 peak. That’s due in part to mortgage lending, which is hovering near its decade-ago level of $9 trillion-plus.
Student loans outstanding have skyrocketed from $611 billion in 2008 to around $1.5 trillion today.
Auto loans, at nearly $1.25 trillion, have exceeded the 2008 total, while credit card balances are just as high now as before the Great Recession.
Meanwhile, global debt — a result of central bankers flooding economies with cheap money to lift them out of an funk — is now $247 trillion, up from $177 trillion in 2008. That is close to 2 ¹/₂ times the size of the global economy.
“We won’t be able to call it a recession, it’s going to be worse than the Great Depression,” said economic commentator Peter Schiff, forecasting a major economic downturn as early as the tail end of the Trump presidency’s first term. “The US economy is in so much worse shape than it was a decade ago.”

Economic theorists say insurmountable debt is the big kahuna. The huge sums today certainly fed the boom times. But since it must eventually be repaid, the tipping point will come when a wave of defaults by overwhelmed borrowers — potentially squeezed by rising interest rates — leads to a widespread reduction in spending and incomes, economists explain.

Although Schiff has gotten some calls wrong in the past — he incorrectly predicted the US Federal Reserve would fail in its roundabout quantitative easing campaign to “reflate” housing and stocks in the wake of the financial crisis — he is convinced he is right on the money this time.

“I think we are going to have a dollar crisis — you think the Turkish lira looks bad now, wait till you see when the dollar is imploding and we have a sovereign debt crisis in the US,” he told The Post. “The US government is going to be given a choice between defaulting on the debt, or else massive runaway inflation.”

Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs said the fiscal outlook for the US was “not good,” and could threaten the nation’s economic security during the next recession.

Schiff dismisses the latest batch of positive indicators, including the lowest unemployment rate in a generation, soaring business confidence spurred by President Trump’s tax cuts and the Dow hitting record highs. “Obviously, there is a whole lot of optimism — but there is a very good chance the US economy is in recession within the next two years. This is already the second-longest economic expansion in history,” Schiff said, adding that recent dips in new housing starts and auto sales may be red flags.

Gunn sees a brutal deflationary spiral ahead in the next downturn.

“People will look to central banks to help them out, but the authorities will be found wanting,” Gunn warned.

“Our prediction is that central banks will go from being feted for ‘saving the world’ in 2008 to being vilified for being impotent in the coming deflationary crash.

Source: Next crash will be ‘worse than the Great Depression’: experts

In the wake of #MeToo, more than 1,000 people have downloaded an app aimed at rooting out repeat sex offenders by allowing victims and witnesses to report the crimes anonymously and join forces against the sickos.

Called JDoe, the free app launched on the Apple and Android app store in April. It works by prompting users to report when and where an incident took place, along with the name of the perpetrator and any details of the crime.

The information is then stored in an encrypted database. Users cannot see the names of other victims or of perpetrators, but the app’s algorithm scans for patterns. If a repeat offender turns up, accusers receive separate notifications along with information on pursuing joint legal action through JDoe’s network of attorneys, if they desire.

There’s no need to wait for other victims to surface, however. JDoe also provides a way for users to anonymously report individual incidents to police or legal services providers.

In either scenario, the accused are not notified through the app that they have been reported.

A page on the JDoe app shown on an iPhone where you can fill out a report on a sexual offender, as well as details on the incident
JDoe
Company founder and CEO Ryan Soscia, 24, says he began developing JDoe in 2015, shortly after learning that a group of teammates and friends had been assaulted by the same trainer.

“What we [at JDoe] really try to focus on is enabling people to pursue justice together,” Soscia tells The Post. “We’re trying to democratize legal services.”

He describes the app’s identity encryption as something “Edward Snowden would approve of.”

As the app’s user base grows, Soscia plans to develop a map feature that visually displays incident reports. His team is also working on a feature that will alert users if they enter an area with multiple incident reports.

In addition, Soscia plans to grow the app’s survivor-support services such as referrals for mental health care providers. “We’re looking to provide almost a Yelp-like service,” he says.

“There’s power in realizing you’re not alone,” he says. “And that could be powerful throughput for the justice system.”

Source: People are using a new app to report sex assault anonymously

Coca-Cola is in talks with cannabis producer Aurora Cannabis to make marijuana-infused beverages, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

The companies would likely develop health-focused beverages that will ease inflammation, pain and cramping, the report said, citing sources familiar with the matter.

“Along with many others in the beverage industry, we are closely watching the growth of non-psychoactive CBD as an ingredient in functional wellness beverages around the world,” Coca-Cola said in a statement, referring to cannabidiol, a constituent of cannabis.

“No decisions have been made at this time,” the beverage group said, adding that it would not comment on further speculation.

Aurora, in a separate statement, said it would not discuss business development initiatives until they are finalized, but added: “Aurora has expressed specific interest in the infused beverage space, and we intend to enter that market.”

A partnership between Coke and Aurora would mark the first entry of a major manufacturer of non-alcoholic beverages into the market for cannabis-related products.

The news comes as more US states move to legalize marijuana for recreational use and as Canada, where Aurora is based, prepares to fully legalize the recreational use of cannabis next month.

There is no guarantee that talks between the companies will be successful or that a commercial agreement would be made public, BNN Bloomberg reported.

Earlier this year, alcohol producer Molson Coors said it will make cannabis-infused drinks with Hydropothecary Corp, while Corona beer maker Constellation Brands invested $4 billion more into marijuana producer Canopy Growth.

Coca-Cola’s shares rose marginally in premarket trade on Monday.

Source: Coca-Cola is in talks to make marijuana-infused drinks

Richard Gere and wife Alejandra Silva are readying for diaper duty.

On Sunday, Silva, 35, confirmed she and Gere, 69, are expecting their first child together, sharing a snap of the Dalai Lama putting his hand on her growing baby bump.

“Just a few moments ago… Getting blessings for our precious to come..” she posted on Instagram. “We couldn’t announce it before telling HH Dalai Lama☺️.”

Gere, a practicing Buddhist, secretly wed Silva in a civil ceremony in April.

Rumblings of a potential pregnancy first emerged in August, though both Gere and Silva have children from previous relationships. The “Pretty Woman” actor and second wife Carey Lowell are parents to 18-year-old son Homer, while Silva and ex-husband Govind Friedland welcomed son Albert in December 2012.

Prior to Silva, Gere was married to Cindy Crawford from 1991 to 1995. He wed Lowell in 2002, before separating in 2013. Their divorce was finalized in 2016.

Source: Richard Gere’s wife confirms pregnancy as blessed by Dalai Lama

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon on Sunday said he regretted comments that he was “smarter” than U.S. President Donald Trump and could beat him in an election.

“I shouldn’t have said it. It also proves I would not be a good politician,” Dimon said in an interview on ABC’s “This Week.”

On Wednesday, Dimon quickly backtracked after saying he could beat Trump in a campaign but not liberal Democrats.

Trump had a sharp rejoinder for Dimon on Thursday, saying the JPMorgan chief executive lacked the “smarts” to be president but was otherwise wonderful.

Dimon said he was speaking “more out of frustration and my own machismo,” and had no plans to run for president.

“I never say never to anything, but no,” Dimon said when asked if he would run for president.

The bank executive said he felt Trump’s policies were helping the economy.

“He should take some credit,” Dimon said, for regulatory and tax changes. “That has helped the economy. It is impossible to tease out how much.”

Source: JP Morgan chief Dimon says shouldn’t have made remarks about Trump

The woman who has accused Brett Kavanaugh of attacking her during a high school party in the 1980s, came forward Sunday, saying the Supreme Court nominee drunkenly pinned her to a bed, groped her over her clothes and put his hand over her mouth when she tried to scream, according to a new report.

“I thought he might inadvertently kill me,” Christine Blasey Ford, 51, told The Washington Post in a report published online Sunday. “He was trying to attack me and remove my clothing.”

Ford, a research psychologist in northern California, said Kavanaugh and a friend were both “stumbling drunk” when they pushed her into a bedroom during the alcohol-fueled party in suburban Maryland.

With his pal watching, Kavanaugh grinded his body against hers and tried to pull off her one-piece bathing suit and the clothing she wore over it, Ford told the paper.

She said she managed to flee when Mark Judge, Kavanaugh’s classmate at Georgetown Preparatory School, jumped on top of them – allowing her to lock herself in a bathroom before running out of the house.

Ford said she told no one about the episode until 2012, when she was in couples therapy with her husband.

On Sunday, the White House sent the newspaper a statement that Kavanaugh issued last week, when the outlines of his accuser’s account first became public,

“I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do this back in high school or at any time,” he said.

Through a White House spokesman, Kavanaugh declined to comment further on Ford’s allegation and did not respond to questions about whether he knew her during high school.

The White House had no additional comment.

Source: Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser comes out of the shadows

Take a knee…

I don’t think I’ve ever read anything more powerful than this piece.

It was written by Ted Nugent

Take a little trip to Valley Forge in January. Hold a musket ball in your Fingers and imagine it piercing your flesh and breaking a bone or two.
There won’t be a doctor or trainer to assist you until after the battle, so Just wait your turn. Take your cleats and socks off to get a real Experience.

Then, take a knee on the beach in Normandy where man after American man Stormed the beach, even as the one in front of him was shot to pieces, the Very sea stained with American blood. The only blockers most had were the
Dead bodies in front of them, riddled with bullets from enemy fire.

Take a knee in the sweat soaked jungles of Vietnam. From Khe Sanh to Saigon, anywhere will do. Americans died in all those jungles. There was no Playbook that told them what was next, but they knew what flag they Represented. When they came home, they were protested as well, and spit on
For reasons only cowards know.

Take another knee in the blood drenched sands of Fallujah in 110 degree Heat. Wear your Kevlar helmet and battle dress. Your number won’t be Printed on it unless your number is up! You’ll need to stay hydrated but There won’t be anyone to squirt Gatorade into your mouth. You’re on your Own.

There are a lot of places to take a knee where Americans have given their Lives all over the world. When you use the banner under which they fought As a source for your displeasure, you dishonor the memories of those who
Bled for the very freedoms you have. That’s what the red stripes mean. It Represents the blood of those who spilled a sea of it defending your Liberty.

While you’re on your knee, pray for those that came before you, not on a Manicured lawn striped and printed with numbers to announce every inch of Ground taken, but on nameless hills and bloodied beaches and sweltering
Forests and bitter cold mountains, every inch marked by an American life Lost serving that flag you protest.

No cheerleaders, no announcers, no coaches, no fans, just American men and Women, delivering the real fight against those who chose to harm us, Blazing a path so you would have the right to “take a knee.” You haven’t Any inkling of what it took to get you where you are, but your “protest” is
Duly noted. Not only is it disgraceful to a nation of real heroes, it Serves the purpose of pointing to your ingratitude for those who chose to Defend you under that banner that will still wave long after your jersey is Retired.

If you really feel the need to take a knee, come with me to church on Sunday and we’ll both kneel before Almighty God. We’ll thank Him for Preserving this country for as long as He has. We’ll beg forgiveness for our Ingratitude for all He has provided us. We’ll appeal to Him for Understanding and wisdom. We’ll pray for liberty and justice for all,
Because He is the one who provides those things. But there will be no Protest. There will only be gratitude for His provision and a plea for His Continued grace and mercy on the land of the free and the home of the Brave.
It goes like this, GOD BLESS AMERICA

Dear Nike,

I want to have a conversation about this hat. It’s over 13 years old. I don’t remember when I bought it exactly, I don’t remember where I bought it. But what I do remember is why I wore it.
On August 10, 2005, I was a newlywed with two young sons. My husband Tim and I had toasted our one month anniversary the night before, and I was enjoying a rare evening to myself, catching up on reading and relishing the quiet. Until there was a knock on my door. I had no way of knowing that the small act of turning a knob was about to shatter my life into a million pieces. I sat numb and in sheer disbelief as I was told that my husband, while in a foot pursuit and subsequent struggle with a suspect that ended up in the road, had been struck and killed by an oncoming vehicle. He took his last breath lying in the middle of the street. What I lost in that moment is indescribable. I had to watch his mother be dealt the most agonizing blow a parent can face, and I couldn’t comfort her because I was in my own hell. I had to find a way to gut my own children in the gentlest way possible, and tell them that this man they had come to love, who they looked up to, who cared for them as his own, would never walk through our door again.

I don’t know if you’ve ever attended a police funeral, but watching grown men who’ve seen the absolute worst things a civilian can imagine, break down and sob over the casket of their brother is an image that never leaves you. The bagpipes haunt my dreams to this day, but it was the faces of my children, the innocence that abandoned them at such a tender age that brought me to my knees.

I had no choice but to move on. We trudged zombie-like through our days for weeks and weeks on end. I never left the house except to drive the boys to school, or buy food we barely touched. I realized that I had to do something. I had to move my body or I was going to crawl out of my own skin. So I put on the only cap I had and I went for a run. It was short, it hurt and it was ugly. But I felt, just for those few moments on that road, like a normal person. So I kept doing it. I put that hat on and I ran every day. Sometimes I had to stop and sit down because I was sobbing so hard. Sometimes I was so angry I ran until I thought I my heart would stop, sometimes I would just scream over and over again, but it still felt better than doing nothing.

That black cap became a symbol to me, it is sweat stained and it’s shape is gone, the buckle in the back barely closes; but that hat represents my family’s rise from the ashes. It stands for the strength and the sacrifice we made loving a man who had a job that we all knew could end his life, every time he walked out that door. And it did. And I accept that.

I still wear this hat, I wore it on my run this morning.
And then I heard about your new ad campaign.

Colin Kapernick has the absolute right to protest anything he damn well pleases. I don’t dispute that for one second. My father, my husband and many, many friends have all served this country and were willing to fight for his right to kneel.
But that right goes both ways. I also have a right to express my disgust at your decision to portray him as some kind of hero. What, exactly has Colin Kapernick sacrificed? His multi million dollar paycheck…? Nope, you already gave him one of those. His reputation? No, he’s been fawned over by celebrities and media alike. Funny, Tim Tebow was never called courageous when he knelt.
This man, whose contempt for law enforcement fits him like a…sock, has promoted an agenda that has been proven false time and time again, in study after study. But facts don’t seem to matter anymore. This man has thrown his support behind divisive anti-police groups, and donated money directly to a fugitive from justice who escaped prison after killing a police officer. I question the judgement of anyone who would put someone this controversial and divisive at the head of an advertising campaign, but it isn’t my company to run.

I don’t know if I’ll have he heart to ever get rid of this cap, but I will tell you this, I’ll never purchase another Nike product as long as I live. You got this one wrong Nike, terribly, terribly wrong.

The Times today is taking the rare step of publishing an anonymous Op-Ed essay. We have done so at the request of the author, a senior official in the Trump administration whose identity is known to us and whose job would be jeopardized by its disclosure. We believe publishing this essay anonymously is the only way to deliver an important perspective to our readers. We invite you to submit a question about the essay or our vetting process here.

President Trump is facing a test to his presidency unlike any faced by a modern American leader.

It’s not just that the special counsel looms large. Or that the country is bitterly divided over Mr. Trump’s leadership. Or even that his party might well lose the House to an opposition hellbent on his downfall.

The dilemma — which he does not fully grasp — is that many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.
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I would know. I am one of them.

To be clear, ours is not the popular “resistance” of the left. We want the administration to succeed and think that many of its policies have already made America safer and more prosperous.

But we believe our first duty is to this country, and the president continues to act in a manner that is detrimental to the health of our republic.

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That is why many Trump appointees have vowed to do what we can to preserve our democratic institutions while thwarting Mr. Trump’s more misguided impulses until he is out of office.

The root of the problem is the president’s amorality. Anyone who works with him knows he is not moored to any discernible first principles that guide his decision making.
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Although he was elected as a Republican, the president shows little affinity for ideals long espoused by conservatives: free minds, free markets and free people. At best, he has invoked these ideals in scripted settings. At worst, he has attacked them outright.

In addition to his mass-marketing of the notion that the press is the “enemy of the people,” President Trump’s impulses are generally anti-trade and anti-democratic.

Don’t get me wrong. There are bright spots that the near-ceaseless negative coverage of the administration fails to capture: effective deregulation, historic tax reform, a more robust military and more.

But these successes have come despite — not because of — the president’s leadership style, which is impetuous, adversarial, petty and ineffective.

From the White House to executive branch departments and agencies, senior officials will privately admit their daily disbelief at the commander in chief’s comments and actions. Most are working to insulate their operations from his whims.

Meetings with him veer off topic and off the rails, he engages in repetitive rants, and his impulsiveness results in half-baked, ill-informed and occasionally reckless decisions that have to be walked back.

“There is literally no telling whether he might change his mind from one minute to the next,” a top official complained to me recently, exasperated by an Oval Office meeting at which the president flip-flopped on a major policy decision he’d made only a week earlier.
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The erratic behavior would be more concerning if it weren’t for unsung heroes in and around the White House. Some of his aides have been cast as villains by the media. But in private, they have gone to great lengths to keep bad decisions contained to the West Wing, though they are clearly not always successful.

It may be cold comfort in this chaotic era, but Americans should know that there are adults in the room. We fully recognize what is happening. And we are trying to do what’s right even when Donald Trump won’t.

The result is a two-track presidency.

Take foreign policy: In public and in private, President Trump shows a preference for autocrats and dictators, such as President Vladimir Putin of Russia and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, and displays little genuine appreciation for the ties that bind us to allied, like-minded nations.

Astute observers have noted, though, that the rest of the administration is operating on another track, one where countries like Russia are called out for meddling and punished accordingly, and where allies around the world are engaged as peers rather than ridiculed as rivals.

On Russia, for instance, the president was reluctant to expel so many of Mr. Putin’s spies as punishment for the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain. He complained for weeks about senior staff members letting him get boxed into further confrontation with Russia, and he expressed frustration that the United States continued to impose sanctions on the country for its malign behavior. But his national security team knew better — such actions had to be taken, to hold Moscow accountable.

This isn’t the work of the so-called deep state. It’s the work of the steady state.

Given the instability many witnessed, there were early whispers within the cabinet of invoking the 25th Amendment, which would start a complex process for removing the president. But no one wanted to precipitate a constitutional crisis. So we will do what we can to steer the administration in the right direction until — one way or another — it’s over.

The bigger concern is not what Mr. Trump has done to the presidency but rather what we as a nation have allowed him to do to us. We have sunk low with him and allowed our discourse to be stripped of civility.
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Senator John McCain put it best in his farewell letter. All Americans should heed his words and break free of the tribalism trap, with the high aim of uniting through our shared values and love of this great nation.

We may no longer have Senator McCain. But we will always have his example — a lodestar for restoring honor to public life and our national dialogue. Mr. Trump may fear such honorable men, but we should revere them.

There is a quiet resistance within the administration of people choosing to put country first. But the real difference will be made by everyday citizens rising above politics, reaching across the aisle and resolving to shed the labels in favor of a single one: Americans.

The writer is a senior official in the Trump administration.

Source: Opinion | I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration – The New York Times

“This festival was necessary because of everything that happened during festivals last year,” says the 27-year-old student with long pink hair and purple lipstick as her friends nod in agreement.

Held in Sweden’s second-largest city of Gothenburg, the two-day Statement Festival, forbids men but not transgender people. It was announced last year after police received four rape and 23 sexual assault reports at Sweden’s largest Bravalla Festival, which was cancelled this year as a result.

“What do you think about us creating an awesome festival where only non-men are welcome until ALL men learn how to behave?” Swedish comedian Emma Knyckare, who founded the Statement Festival, tweeted at the time.

Located inside an industrial building in Gothenburg’s harbour, only female bands are performing and neither male security guards nor journalists are allowed to enter.

Rebecka Ljung, spokeswoman for the festival, told AFP “thousands” of women were expected to attend the festival.

Under cloudy skies, the festival got started with women holding beers and smiling and walking harmoniously in groups.

With two main stages for the mainly Swedish women performers, there was plenty of space to rest outside on pink coloured seats at the centre of the site, turning the festival into a convivial place in contrast to traditional festivals.

“This place feels like a safe-zone where women can just get together and have fun and celebrate … especially in light of the assaults that have happened at other festivals,” said Julia Skonneby, a 34-year-old performer.

“It feels like a certain tension is gone… we’re here to make a statement together,” Hanna Gustavsson, a 31-year-old designer, chimed in.

Statement, launched after raising more than 500,000 kronor (47,000 euros, $54,000) through crowdfunding, defines a transgender person as “a person who does not identify with the sex assigned to them at birth”.

This means transgender women born as men are allowed to attend. Only men who identify with the sex they were born with, also called cis men, are banned.

Discriminatory?

The Scandinavian country is one of the most gender equal countries in the world.

After receiving several complaints, the Equality Ombudsman (DO), a government agency that promotes equal rights and handles discrimination complaints, has asked the festival to specify what it means by “cis men”.

“We want to examine whether the festival is compatible with discrimination laws,” the agency’s spokesman Clas Lundstedt told AFP, adding it would take a couple of weeks to reach a conclusion.

Festival-goer Gustavsson said she thought it was fair to bar men.

“I don’t believe in complete separatism but I think it’s very important to have this festival right now.”

According to the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, 4.1 percent of women reported that they had been the victim of a sexual crime compared to 0.6 percent of men in Sweden.

Knyckare told AFP that the MeToo wave exposing sexual assault unveiled “serious problems” in Sweden, one of the most gender equal nations in the world, at not only festivals but several institutions.

“It seems like men have woken up to how huge the problem with sexual violence is,” she told AFP.

Source: Women cheer as Sweden’s man-free music festival kicks off – The Local