Refining hurricane forecasts by connecting the dots
Predictions of North Atlantic hurricane paths based on spatio-temporal data at the region of origin, off the coast of North Africa. Click image to enlarge and for more information.
By graphing points in Earth’s roiling atmosphere with the aid of the latest petascale-power technology, scientists collaborating on Department of Energy-funded research say they could improve major seasonal North Atlantic hurricane forecast reliability by more than 25 percent.
“We ask questions about the end-game of hurricanes: Where will they likely end up in 10 or 15 days?” says Nagiza Samatova, an associate professor in computer science and mathematics at North Carolina State University and a senior research scientist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
“We are finding local impacts using global data,” adds Alok Choudhary, Samatova’s collaborator and John G. Searle professor of computer science and electrical engineering at Northwestern University.
After a few years of sleuthing through existing climate records, their work is revealing previously unknown but predictive links between distant places that seem to recur during peak years for hurricane activity.
NEW YORK (AP) — A tiny beachfront neighborhood told to evacuate before Sandy hit New York burned down as it was inundated by floodwaters, transforming a quaint corner of the Rockaways into a smoke-filled debris field.
By Tuesday morning, charred foundations of from 80 to 100 buildings were left in the sand at Breezy Point, a coastal community on Jamaica Bay known for its marshland and shorebirds.
Firefighters arrived at 11 p.m. Monday to find water chest-high in the streets, and used a boat to make rescues as orange flames engulfed home after home. The water and high winds whipping the coast from Sandy kept the blaze raging for several hours as firefighters hauled hoses while sloshing in ankle-high water.
“We watched the whole place go up in flames. It was hell night. It was the devil’s night,” said resident Thomas Reicherter.
One firefighter suffered a minor injury and was taken to a hospital. Two civilians suffered minor injuries and were treated at the scene.
Firefighters had to rescue several more, climbing onto an awning to take trapped people from an upstairs apartment with a roof that was catching fire from the house next door. A row of about 25 businesses, including a shoe repair store, burned with apartments above many of them.
More than 190 firefighters were sent to the blaze, still putting out some pockets more than nine hours after it erupted, training hoses on the inside of a medical center.
As daylight broke Tuesday, a stone statue that appeared to represent the Virgin Mary stood next to wooden slats and debris-caked mud, surrounded by no homes. Two logs not attached to anything crushed the top of a red Ford SUV. Residents walked aimlessly through water-filled streets with electrical wires dangling down in front of them.
The neighborhood was among the low-lying areas the mayor said were a flood danger a day before Sandy came ashore, shuttering the nation’s largest city and cutting power to hundreds of thousands. Gene Morizzo, a security guard at an ocean apartment complex in nearby Rockaway Park, said about half of the 300 or so residents insisted on staying behind, noting that Irene didn’t hit the story hard a year ago amid the same warnings.
“I kept telling people it’s a mandatory evacuation. They said, ‘Oh it’s nothing, Irene this. Irene that.”
Residents couldn’t wait to get out on Tuesday. They were directed to a nearby firehouse in Far Rockaway, but that firehouse had been evacuated because it was under 5 feet of water and had no power.
John Frawley, 57, said he made a mistake by staying behind. “I stayed up all night,” he said. “The screams. The fire. It was horrifying.”
Frawley lived about five houses from the fire’s edge and said he spent the night terrified, “not knowing if the fire was going to jump the boulevard and come up to my house.”
In September, the same neighborhood was struck by a tornado that hurled debris in the air, knocked out power and startled residents who once thought of twisters as a Midwestern phenomenon.
The community of 12,000 borders Rockaway Park, where a historic boardwalk had been strewn around the sand, popped up in some spots like an opened can and heaved 30 to 40 feet in others. The beach’s lifeguard shack and restrooms were destroyed. Allison Miller stood on what was left of the buckled boardwalk in tears.
Anyone with plans to dress up as a gangster or belly dancer this Halloween may want to reconsider.
A group at Ohio University is leading a campaign to bring attention to what it calls “racially insensitive” costumes that perpetuate ethnic and racial stereotypes.
“We’re a culture, not a costume,” the group, Students Teaching About Racism in Society, or STARS, says in its annual Halloween poster campaign, now in its second year.
On its website, STARS shows students holding photos of costumes deemed offensive by the group. In one instance, a Muslim student stands next to a picture of a white man wearing a ghutra and iqal over his head with bombs strapped to his chest.
“This is not who I am and this is not okay,” reads the message above the picture.
Other images show an Asian student holding a photo of a geisha and an African-American man positioned next to an image of a gangster. The caption reads: “You wear the costume for one night, I wear the stigma for life.”
A representative from the group was not immediately available for comment Wednesday. In a statement on its website, the group said “The purpose of S.T.A.R.S. is to facilitate discussion about diversity and all isms (sexism, classism, heterosexism, ethnocentrism etc.) with an emphasis on racial issues.
“We aim to raise awareness about social justice, and promote racial harmony. Our job is to create a safe, non-threatening environment to allow participants to feel comfortable to express their feelings,” the group said.
The initiative comes after well-known chain stores came under fire in recent years for selling controversial Halloween costumes — like Target’s adult “illegal alien” jumpsuit.
STARS’ campaign has gained some momentum since it was launched last year. The movement reportedly spread to Florida State University, where many students back the group’s message.
But not everyone is in agreement with the group’s initiative. Some students, like FSU senior Gavin Brenner, claim STARS is suppressing freedom of expression and being overly sensitive.
“These [costumes] are all portrayals which take place in film and television all the time,” Benner told fsunews.com. “There will always be people who are being irresponsible and intentionally offensive, but that is the vast minority. When you take into account that everyone has a freedom to expression, then I believe it isn’t anyone’s place to suppress that.”
Ben Affleck’s C.I.A. thriller Argo is having quite the box office run.
After debuting at number two with $19.5 million, Warner Bros.’ Oscar contender dropped by just 16 percent last weekend to $16.4 million. This weekend, the film notched yet another impressive achievement: it climbed to number one with an estimated $12.4 million (a 25 percent drop) in its third frame, becoming the first film since True Grit to hop to first place in its third weekend.
Argo, which cost $45 million to make, has now earned $60.8 million total, and thanks to terrific word-of-mouth (the film earned an “A+” CinemaScore grade) and early awards buzz, Argo is eyeing a $100 million finish. Though it is running a tad behind Affleck’s last directorial effort, The Town, which had earned $64.1 million at the same point in its run en route to a $92.2 million finish, Argo is enjoying much better week-to-week holds. (The Town, which opened higher Argo with $23.8 million, fell 38 percent to $9.7 million in its third weekend.)
Sony Pictures Animation’s $85 million Adam Sandler-voiced effort Hotel Transylvania jumped two spots into second place with $9.5 million in its fifth weekend. The film, which has scored slim drops since its robust $42.5 million debut in September, only fell 27 percent this weekend — the final frame before Halloween. It will be interesting to see whether Hotel holds up in the holiday’s wake, but it’s already a monster hit. With $130.4 million total, Hotel is already Sony Pictures Animation’s highest grossing film ever, above Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, which grossed $124.9 million in 2009. It’s also given Adam Sandler a much-needed career boost following his back-to-back misfires, Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy.
EW DAILY POLL: ‘Cloud Atlas’ seems….
The pricey novel adaptation Cloud Atlas finished in third place with a weak $9.4 million. Remarkably, that was the best start of any of this weekend’s newcomers, which is a testament to the weakness of the frame. The heady drama, which follows six separate storylines and stars Tom Hanks, Halle Berry, and Hugh Grant in various roles, genders, and races, proved too difficult for mainstream audiences to latch onto. Audiences, which were 77 percent above the age of 25, issued the film a “C+” CinemaScore.
For Warner Bros., Cloud Atlas‘ failure is not the worst news — the studio acquired domestic distribution rights for a reported $15 million and marketed the film — but the real losers here are the Wachowski siblings and the foreign investors who financed the project. Cloud Atlas cost a whopping $100 million, and it has no chance of making that money back — at least not in the States. Another loser? Tom Hanks, whose box office clout has all but disappeared in recent years. Cloud Atlas arrives on the heels of two other box office underperformers: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close ($31.9 million) and Larry Crowne ($35.6 million).
In fourth, Paranormal Activity 4 dropped by a massive 70 percent — a high point for the Paranormal franchise (PA2 dropped by 60 percent in its second weekend. PA3 fell 65 percent) — to $8.7 million. After ten days, Paramount’s $5 million found footage sequel has earned $42.6 million, which is still $10 million less than PA3 grossed in its first weekend.
Taken 2 took fifth place, sliding 40 percent to $8.0 million, which gives Fox’s $45 million action thriller a $117.4 million total. Though the Liam Neeson vehicle is a huge hit, it’s becoming clear that it will not surpass the final $145 million domestic gross of the original Taken. In its fourth weekend, Taken, which opened with half of what Taken 2 made, earned $11.3 million. Taken 2 is falling much faster.
Forum in Syracuse, NY, USA on October 8: Dalai Lama will participate in The Forum for Peace at the Goldstein Auditorium, Syracuse University. In the morning he will participate in a panel discussion on The Arab Spring and in the afternoon he will participate in a panel discussion on Shifting the Global Consciousness.
Public Talk in Syracuse, NY, USA on October 9: will give a public talk on Resolving Conflict in One World Community Through Global Consciousness at the Carrier Dome, Syracuse University.
Public Talk in Williamsburg, VA, USA on October 10: Dalai Lama will give a public talk on Human Compassion in the afternoon at the Kaplan Arena, The College of William & Mary.
Panel Discussion in Charlottesville, VA, USA on October 11: Dalai Lama will participate in a panel discussion on Compassionate Care in 21st Century Medicine in the morning at the Paramount Theater.
Public Talk in Charlottesville, VA, USA on October 11: Dalai Lama will give a public talk on Beyond Religion: Ethics for a Whole World in the afternoon at the Charlottesville Pavilion.
Public Talk in Middlebury, VT, USA on October 13: Dalai Lama will give a public talk on Finding Common Ground: Ethics for a Whole World in the morning at Middlebury College. Public Talk in Cambridge, MA, USA on October 14: Dalai Lama will give a public talk on Beyond Religion: Ethics, Values and Wellbeing in the afternoon.
Panel Discussion in Cambridge, MA, USA on October 15: Dalai Lama will participate in a day-long multi-disciplinary forum on Global Systems 2.0 as part of programs at The Dalai Lama Center for Ethics and Transformative Values at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Teachings in Cambridge, MA, USA on October 16: Dalai Lama will give teachings on Kamalashila’s The Middling Stages of Meditation (gomrim barpa) in the morning as part of the 10th year celebration of Prajnopaya at the Massachusetts of Technology.
Public Talk in Providence, RI, USA on October 17: Dalai Lama will give a public talk on A Global Challenge: Creating a Culture of Peace in the afternoon at Brown University.
Public Talk in Danbury, CT, USA on October 18: Dalai Lama will give a public talk on The Art of Compassion in the afternoon at the O’Neill Center, Western Connecticut State University.
Public Talk in Danbury, CT, USA on October 19: Dalai Lama will give a public talk on Advice for Daily Life in the morning at the O’Neill Center, Western Connecticut State University.
Discussion in New York, NY, USA on October 20: Dalai Lama will be having a one-day discussion on Contemplative Practice and Health: Laboratory Findings and Real World Challenges organized by the Mind & Life Institute at the Caspary Auditorium, Rockefeller University.
Teaching in New York, NY on October 21: Dalai Lama will give a teaching on The Essence of Buddhism in the afternoon at the request of the Tibetan and Kalmyk Communities at the Lincoln Center.
Remember the outcry last year when a Comcast exec mentioned in passing the idea of a set-top box that would have a built in camera to monitor who and how many people were actually watching the TV? The outcry over that forced Comcast to say that it wasn’t really going to do that, but Broadband Reports points out that the technology behind such a plan is still moving forward — and apparently cable companies are, indeed, interested in it. The idea is that it can show personalized ads and better target content. It’s worth noting that the company behind the system, Prime Sense, seems to be trying to position it for less “scary” apps, such as being able to do “virtual touch” interfaces, so users could interact with menus on the screen without a remote (features found in some video games these days). Still, unless the end user is given total control over what info is recorded and where it’s being sent, this technology seems like a non-starter.
Emergency management teams and utilities along the East Coast are bracing for what could be a $1 billion punch as Hurricane Sandys 100 mph winds barrel toward the heavily populated region between the Carolina coast and Cape Cod.The Category 2 storm, which has killed two in the Caribbean as it swept through Cuba and blew toward the Bahamas, may combine with other, rain-heavy weather systems to create what meteorologists are calling a “perfect storm” that could wreak havoc from North Carolina to Massachusetts early next week. Sandy will likely maintain its hurricane status as it passes over the Bahamas later Thursday and may bring tropical storm conditions along Florida’s southeastern coast by early Friday.“We are taking the forecast seriously.”- Laura Southard, Virginia Department of Emergency ManagementJeff Masters, a meteorologist for Weather Underground, called the hurricane a “perfect storm,” and predicted early next week that it could cause $1 billion or more in damage.In Virginia, where the storm may make landfall as early as this weekend, officials from the state’s Department of Emergency Management are advising residents to make preparations in advance and to closely watch local forecasts.“We are taking the forecast seriously,” VDEM spokeswoman Laura Southard told FoxNews.com. “We are in close contact with the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, so we’re getting the best information we can.”Residents in the storm’s expected path, Southard said, should have a three days’ supply of water on hand, or one gallon per person per day, enough for drinking, cooking and some bathing.“They should have at least a 3-day supply and food that doesn’t need electricity to prepare it,” she said.To combat extended power outages, Southard suggested residents purchase battery-powered radios and extra batteries.“Pay attention,” she said. “Expect that there’s going to be some effect and go ahead and make some preparations.”Southard said state officials likely will add more employees at its emergency center in Richmond beginning on Saturday.“It looks like things are coming together,” she said. “And it never, ever hurts to be prepared.”In New York, Consolidated Edison is warning its 9 million customers in Westchester County and New York City to stay away from any downed power lines if and when the storm strikes the Empire State.“Treat any downed line as if it’s alive,” Con Ed spokesman Christ Olert told FoxNews.com. “Stay away.”Olert advised residents to charge portable devices in advance and to have extra batteries on hand in the event of outages.“We’re watching it and we’ll be prepared,” Con Ed spokesman Chris Olert told FoxNews.com. “We’ll have extra crews available and, if need be, we’ll go to 12-hour shifts.”The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Sandy emerged off Cubas coast early Thursday and was moving north at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. It was expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the Bahamas. A tropical storm warning has been extended northward as far as Flagler Beach and a tropical storm watch was issued for the northeastern Florida coast.”Itll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod,” said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Maryland. “We dont have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.”White House officials, meanwhile, said President Obama has been briefed on Hurricane Sandy and urged people within the storm’s projected path to monitor local weather reports. Federal emergency management officials have been working with local authorities to prepare, spokesman Jay Carney said Thursday.
All vehicles traveling on French roads must carry a chemical or electronic breathalyzer test beginning Sunday, under new rules aimed at reducing alcohol-driven accidents.
“Alcohol has been the main cause of mortality on roads since 2006,” according to road security authorities.
About a third of fatalities on French roads is due to drink driving, a rate that far surpasses the 17 percent recorded in Britain or 10 percent in Germany.
According to a survey published Sunday, just over half of respondents — 57 percent — said they have yet to equip their vehicles with breathalyzer tests.
Those who fail to do so risk a fine of 11 euros ($14) from November 1, 2012, when the penalty comes into force.
Drivers are split over the measure.
“I find it absurd to be booked for that. But it’s the law, so I’ll be subject to it,” said Hamou Louachiche, 38, who still does not have a test in his car.
He believes that such tests would be more useful in bars or nightclubs.
Others however welcome the measure, saying it would reduce drink driving.
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The real question should be WHY ARE THE FRENCH SPENDING MORE TIME GETTING DRUNK and why is Suicide higher in France?
Socialism folks, it leads to no opportunities and depression. Why? because no motivation to try to do better, because you cannot get ahead, you only pay more in taxes, so instead, since there is no hope, just get drunk and have another affair with another one of your friends mates… even the president does this…
A three-day-old wildfire erupted with catastrophic fury Tuesday, ripping across the foothills neighborhoods of Colorado Springs, devouring an untold number of homes and sending tens of thousands fleeing to safety in what was shaping up as one of the biggest disasters in state history. “This is a firestorm of epic proportions,” said Colorado Springs Fire Chief Richard Brown. The Waldo Canyon fire in El Paso County — which had been growing in the forested hills on the city’s west side — blew into an inferno late in the afternoon, raging over a ridge toward densely populated neighborhoods.
An apocalyptic plume of smoke covered Colorado’s second-largest city as thousands of people forced to evacuate clogged Interstate
Jimmy Carter Accuses U.S. of Widespread Abuse of Human RightsBy Amy Bingham | ABC News – 22 hrs agoEmail86PrintRelated ContentJimmy Carter Accuses U.S. of Widespread …A former U.S. president is accusing the current president of sanctioning the “widespread abuse of human rights” by authorizing drone strikes to kill suspected terrorists.Jimmy Carter, Americas 39 th president, denounced the Obama administration for “clearly violating” 10 of the 30 articles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, writing in a New York Times op-ed on Monday that the “United States is abandoning its role as the global champion of human rights.””Instead of making the world safer, Americas violation of international human rights abets our enemies and alienates our friends,” Carter wrote.While the total number of attacks from unmanned aircraft, or drones, and the resulting casualties are murky, the New America Foundation estimates that in Pakistan alone 265 drone strikes have been executed since January 2009 . Those strikes have killed at least 1,488 people, at least 1,343 of them considered militants, the foundation estimates based on news reports and other sources.In addition to the drone strikes, Carter criticized the current president for keeping the Guantanamo Bay detention center open, where prisoners “have been tortured by waterboarding more than 100 times or intimidated with semiautomatic weapons, power drills or threats to sexually assault their mothers.”The former president blasted the government for allowing “unprecedented violations of our rights to privacy through warrantless wiretapping and government mining of our electronic communications.”Want more off-the-cuff politics? Check out OTUS on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @OTUSNews.He also condemned recent legislation that gives the president the power to detain suspected terrorists indefinitely, although a federal judge blocked the law from taking effect for any suspects not affiliated with the September 11 terrorist attacks.”This law violates the right to freedom of expression and to be presumed innocent until proved guilty, two other rights enshrined in the declaration,” Carter said.While Carter never mentioned Obama by name, he called out “our government” and “the highest authorities in Washington,” and urged “concerned citizens” to “persuade Washington to reverse course and regain moral leadership.”Get more pure politics at ABC News.com/Politics and a lighter take on the news at OTUSNews.com
…Jackson Memorial Hospital released two photos of 65-year-old Ronald Poppo with his permission on Tuesday afternoon, one showing him walking down a corridor assisted on either side by a hospital worker.
Poppo, who is believed to have been homeless in Miami since the mid-to-late 1970s, is covered by Medicare and Medicaid, officials said.
Poppo was lazing on the MacArthur Causeway’s westbound Biscayne Boulevard exit ramp sidewalk May 26 when attacked in broad daylight by naked 31-year-old North Miami Beach resident Rudy Eugene, who was caught on surveillance camera trying to strip off Poppo’s clothes before brutalizing his face.
A police officer responding to multiple 911 calls from drivers and cyclists shot and killed Eugene when he reportedly ignored orders to stop chewing Poppo’s face. An autopsy reportedly discovered Poppo’s flesh in the so called “Miami Cannibal”‘s mouth, but not in his stomach. Police have speculated that Eugene may have been under the influence of a synthetic drug, but a full toxicology report is still pending.
But wait it gets better, the girlfriend says face-chewing attacker was religious and now, Gloria Allred, Jewish defender of female celebrities is now involved and Creflo Dollar, these African Americans were a couple and did bible studies together? The cannibal would have made a good husband? What??
This last week delegates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and the Eurozone have been meeting in Washington DC to try to find a way through the current economic crisis in Europe, which is the biggest immediate threat to the world’s economy. Failure to find a workable solution will plunge the western world into another deeper recession, if not something much worse.
So far, attempts to solve the problems have done little but delay any real action being taken, and the apparent lack of understanding and leadership amongst Europe’s politicians has sparked fears of global recession throughout the markets.
The latest real suggestion would provide a €2 trillion bailout fund. The hope being, this would provide a sufficient fire-wall around Greece, Portugal and Ireland; as well provide sufficient funds to bail out Spain or Italy if they should require assistance. Furthermore the deal would provide massive re-capitalization of the European banking system. And finally a managed 50% default, or haircut for Greek debt, but still allowing Greece to remain in the Euro.
However, where €2 trillion will be found is unclear. Germany are already skeptical of pumping any more money into bad debt, as well as losing yet more fiscal powers to Brussels. Action is needed fast. The plan has been welcomed by many as a step in the right direction, however it is likely to still be an economically painful road.
The world is now looking to the next G20 meeting in Cannes, France in November, as key in forging a way through this crisis. It is imperative that the spirit under which these complicated and painful decisions will be made, is the right spirit. Support Prophet TV so we can run intercessory prayer trips into Europe at this key time for the world economy.
Random Events, Free Will, Pre-destiny or Something Darker ?
